Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Garcia singled to right, India scored and Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to third.10–7
- 5Perez singled to left, Pasquantino scored.8–7
- 5Pasquantino doubled to right, India scored and Witt Jr. scored.7–7
- 5Witt Jr. singled to left, Isbel scored and Waters scored, India to second.5–7
- 5Loftin homered to left (385 feet).3–7
- 3Burleson homered to center (428 feet), Arenado scored.2–7
- 3Arenado reached on infield single to third, Donovan scored and Contreras scored on throwing error by third baseman Garcia, Arenado to second.2–5
- 3Contreras hit a ground rule double, Winn scored, Donovan to third.2–3
- 2Gorman homered to center (403 feet), Burleson scored.2–2
- 1Witt Jr. homered to center (428 feet), India scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML KC +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- STL: Elo 56.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- KC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +43 Elo | STL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 19–83rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–32 | 34–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 22–38 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–5 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.