Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Contreras singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Donovan to second.5–6
- 10Winn grounded out to first, Pozo scored, Nootbaar to second.5–5
- 10Pasquantino reached on infield single to second, Garcia scored.5–4
- 9India hit sacrifice fly to left, Loftin scored, Isbel to second.4–4
- 8Herrera homered to center (425 feet), Donovan scored.3–4
- 7Pozo hit sacrifice fly to center, Arenado scored.3–2
- 7Arenado grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Contreras scored, Herrera out at second.3–1
- 5Pasquantino singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.3–0
- 4Caglianone doubled to right, Perez scored.2–0
- 1India homered to center (401 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML KC +110 / STL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- STL: Elo 52.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +2 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +18 Elo | STL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 19–95th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–32 | 34–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 23–38 | 33–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–5 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 12.