Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Tim ElkoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Quero hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.1–4
- 3Meidroth homered to left center (373 feet).1–3
- 2Elko homered to center (409 feet), Rojas scored.1–2
- 2Pasquantino homered to right (358 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- KC: Elo 59.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +66 Elo | KC 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.319th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 15–1723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 141629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–33 | 38–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 26–38 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 23–8 CHW in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 31.