Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike VasilPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robert Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Benintendi scored, Quero out at second, Vargas to third.7–5
- 9Quero singled to right, Meidroth scored, Vargas to second, Benintendi to third.7–4
- 9Vargas walked, Tauchman scored, Benintendi to second, Meidroth to third.7–3
- 9Witt Jr. homered to left center (415 feet), India scored.7–2
- 9India singled to left, Waters scored.5–2
- 7Garcia singled to right, India scored.4–2
- 7India doubled to left, Waters scored.3–2
- 4Perez homered to left center (403 feet), Pasquantino scored.2–2
- 1Vargas homered to left (372 feet), Tauchman scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML KC -120 / CHW +100
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- KC: Elo 57.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Vasil (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +50 Elo | KC 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.319th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Elo rating | 141829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–34 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–23 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 26–39 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 23–9 CHW in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 32.