Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tauchman homered to right (352 feet).3–4
- 5Paredes homered to left center (400 feet).2–4
- 5Quero singled to right, Vargas scored.2–3
- 3Diaz doubled to right, Altuve scored.1–3
- 3Altuve doubled to left, Paredes scored and Peña scored.1–2
- 3Quero singled to right, Vargas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 70%
- ML CHW +220 / HOU -270
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 70.6%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -234
- CHW +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +19 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +152 Elo | HOU 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–27 | Road vs home | 23–136th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 29th of 301417 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–28 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 40–27 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34 | 27–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–10 HOU in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.