Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Owen WhitePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes singled to center, Smith scored, Melton to third.2–10
- 8Melton singled to center, Caratini scored, Smith to third.2–9
- 5Caratini grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Diaz scored, Walker out at second.2–8
- 5Vargas singled to left, Capra scored.2–7
- 5Tauchman grounded out to second, Rojas scored, Capra to third.1–7
- 4Paredes doubled to left, Peña scored.0–7
- 4Peña doubled to left, Smith scored.0–6
- 3Walker doubled to center, Diaz scored and Altuve scored.0–5
- 1Walker homered to left (412 feet), Altuve scored.0–3
- 1Altuve doubled to center, Paredes scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML CHW +150 / HOU -180
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −16 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +95 Elo | HOU 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–26 | Road vs home | 22–139th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 29th of 301419 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–27 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34 | 26–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–9 HOU in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.