Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shawn ArmstrongPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Robert Jr. doubled to left, Vargas scored, Quero to third.1–3
- 5Semien doubled to left, Smith scored, Seager to third.0–3
- 3Smith homered to right center (396 feet).0–2
- 1Seager hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 61%
- ML CHW +145 / TEX -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 62.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -156
- CHW +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −3 | CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +89 Elo | TEX 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–28 | Road vs home | 20–1313th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 29th of 301417 | Elo rating | 149821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–28 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 22–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–13 TEX in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 16.