St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Scott II homered to right (370 feet), Pagés scored.12–2
- 8Burleson singled to right, Winn scored, Contreras to third.10–2
- 7Burleson homered to center (405 feet).9–2
- 6Herrera singled to left, Donovan scored and Winn scored.8–2
- 5Capra hit sacrifice fly to center, Sosa scored.6–2
- 5Arenado walked, Contreras stole home, Burleson to second.6–1
- 2Herrera singled to right, Scott II scored and Donovan scored.5–1
- 2Winn grounded out to first, Pagés scored, Donovan to second, Scott II to third.3–1
- 2Donovan singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Scott II to second, Pagés to third.2–1
- 2Pagés hit sacrifice bunt, Arenado scored, Pagés to first on throwing error by third baseman Vargas, Pagés to second, Nootbaar to third.1–1
- 1Quero singled to right, Vargas scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML STL -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- STL: Elo 58.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +3 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +56 Elo | STL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 16–1825th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 141429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–33 | 43–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 43–28 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 35–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.