Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Yohel PozoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Clement homered to left (377 feet).5–2
- 4Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Clase scored.4–2
- 4Bichette hit sacrifice fly to right, Straw scored, Clase to third.3–2
- 3Springer hit sacrifice fly to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.2–2
- 3Bichette singled to center, Heineman scored.1–2
- 2Pozo homered to left (366 feet).0–2
- 1Contreras singled to center, Winn scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML TOR +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- STL: Elo 51.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −14 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +11 Elo | STL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 22–139th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–27 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 23–14 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–30 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–2 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.