Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8E. Hernández walked, Muncy scored, Conforto to second.7–3
- 8Edman hit sacrifice fly to right, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to third.6–3
- 7Contreras singled to left, Vilade scored, Donovan to second.5–3
- 7Betts homered to left (359 feet).5–2
- 6Burleson hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.4–2
- 5Winn doubled to left, Burleson scored, Pagés to third.4–1
- 4Edman doubled to left, Smith scored.4–0
- 2Kim tripled to right, Smith scored and Edman scored.3–0
- 2Edman singled to center, Muncy scored, Smith to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +15 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +2 Elo | LAD 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 22–104th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 1st of 301557 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–35 | 36–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders | 37–28 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–7 STL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.