Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4
- Justin WrobleskiPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras homered to left (386 feet).0–5
- 5Donovan singled to center, Pagés scored and Nootbaar scored, Donovan to second.0–4
- 2Pagés homered to left (422 feet), Arenado scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML LAD -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- STL: Elo 51.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −42 | +4 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 2.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +11 Elo | STL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 20–106th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 1st of 301561 | Elo rating | 150816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–33 | 34–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–30 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 37–26 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–5 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.