Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-5
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4
- Erick FeddePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado singled to left, Barrero scored, Pagés to second.1–2
- 9Freeman struck out swinging, Ohtani scored on Helsley wild pitch, Betts to second on wild pitch by Helsley.1–1
- 8Burleson reached on infield single to pitcher, Winn scored, Donovan to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -185 / STL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −5 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +52 Elo | LAD 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 21–104th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301558 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–34 | 35–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–30 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 37–27 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–6 STL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.