Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to center (432 feet), Winn scored and Herrera scored.10–9
- 9Kirk scored on Roycroft wild pitch, Giménez to second on wild pitch by Roycroft.10–6
- 9Kirk scored on Roycroft wild pitch, Giménez to second on wild pitch by Roycroft.10–6
- 9Giménez singled to right, Bichette scored, Kirk to third.9–6
- 8Arenado homered to left (367 feet), Burleson scored.8–6
- 7Kirk homered to right center (402 feet), Barger scored.8–4
- 5Springer hit sacrifice fly to left, Bichette scored.6–4
- 5Barger doubled to left, Clase scored, Bichette to third.5–4
- 4Gorman homered to right (391 feet), Burleson scored and Arenado scored.4–4
- 4Arenado singled to left, Donovan scored, Burleson to third.4–1
- 4Roden singled to left, Springer scored, Clement to second.4–0
- 1Giménez homered to right (387 feet), Bichette scored and Kirk scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML TOR +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- STL: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +29 Elo | STL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 22–126th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 19th of 301501 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–27 | 36–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–30 | 37–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.