Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kirk doubled to left, Barger scored.5–4
- 9Clase homered to center (415 feet).4–4
- 8Herrera homered to left (370 feet), Winn scored and Contreras scored.3–4
- 8Contreras singled to right, Scott II scored, Winn to third.3–1
- 8Kirk homered to center (404 feet).3–0
- 2Bichette singled to center, Clement scored.2–0
- 1Springer doubled to left, Barger scored, Kirk to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML TOR +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- STL: Elo 53.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +23 Elo | STL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 22–115th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–27 | 36–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–30 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.