St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Herrera homered to left center (416 feet).2–3
- 7Frelick grounded out to pitcher, Durbin scored, Ortiz to third.1–3
- 4Avans hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoskins scored, Durbin to third.1–2
- 4Yelich homered to left center (390 feet).1–1
- 4Contreras grounded out to shortstop, Donovan scored, Herrera to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML STL +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +43 Elo | MIL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 22–1514th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 17th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–33 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 39–32 | 28–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–19 MIL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.