St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3
- Sonny GrayPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Chourio homered to center (410 feet), Frelick scored.0–6
- 5Frelick singled to left, Durbin scored and Ortiz scored.0–4
- 5Ortiz doubled to right, Turang scored, Durbin to third.0–2
- 2Turang reached on infield single to third, Collins scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -135 / MIL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- STL: Elo 46.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +26 Elo | MIL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 20–1414th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–32 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–30 | 27–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–17 MIL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 29.