San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Caleb DurbinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Durbin homered to left center (386 feet).3–4
- 9Arraez doubled to left, Bogaerts scored and Wade scored.3–3
- 8Collins singled to left, Contreras scored, Frelick thrown out at third.1–3
- 8Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to left, Yelich scored.1–2
- 7Bauers hit sacrifice fly to center, Collins scored.1–1
- 4Díaz singled to left, Merrill scored, Iglesias to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML SD +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +23 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 18–1112th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–26 | 34–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–36 | 25–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–8 MIL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.