Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching9.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Haase doubled to left, Frelick scored.6–2
- 7Albies singled to center, Riley scored.6–1
- 4Acuña Jr. homered to left center (416 feet), Allen scored.5–1
- 2Hoskins homered to left (396 feet).3–1
- 2Baldwin singled to left, Allen scored, Acuña Jr. to third.3–0
- 2Harris II homered to right (413 feet), Ozuna scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -185 / MIL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 45.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- MIL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 3.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +31 Elo | MIL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–24 | Road vs home | 20–1313th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–38 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 27–39 | 26–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–6 MIL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.