Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-4, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras walked, Durbin scored, Turang to second, Ortiz to third.1–4
- 6Bauers homered to center (434 feet).1–3
- 5Acuña Jr. singled to center, Allen scored.1–2
- 3Chourio homered to center (409 feet), Ortiz scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML ATL -130 / MIL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 45.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −8 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–23 | Road vs home | 19–1314th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 10th of 301520 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–37 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 27–38 | 26–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–5 MIL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.