San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-3
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Machado homered to left center (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML SD +145 / MIL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -156
- SD +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | SD: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +25 Elo | MIL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 19–1111th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–26 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–37 | 25–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–9 MIL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.