Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ozuna singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored and Riley scored, Olson to third.7–1
- 8White homered to left center (388 feet), Albies scored.5–1
- 5Olson homered to center (417 feet), Riley scored.3–1
- 5Acuña Jr. homered to right center (404 feet).1–1
- 3Contreras singled to center, Ortiz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML ATL -175 / MIL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 47.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -156
- MIL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 3.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −3 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +15 Elo | MIL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–23 | Road vs home | 19–1213th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–37 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–29 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–38 | 25–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–5 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.