St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to left (389 feet).8–5
- 9Contreras homered to center (397 feet).8–4
- 5Chourio singled to left, Frelick scored.7–4
- 5Frelick doubled to left, Durbin scored and Turang scored.7–3
- 5Gorman homered to center (433 feet), Contreras scored and Arenado scored.7–1
- 4Passed ball by catcher Pagés. Chourio scored.4–1
- 4Chourio scored.4–1
- 4Scott II singled to left, Gorman scored and Walker scored.4–0
- 4Walker grounded into fielder's choice to third, Arenado scored on throwing error by third baseman Durbin, Walker safe at second, Gorman safe at third on error.2–0
- 1Burleson singled to center, Winn scored, Herrera thrown out at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML STL +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +9 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +57 Elo | MIL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 22–1413th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 19th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–33 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32 | 27–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–19 MIL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 31.