St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4
- Erick FeddePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Scott II singled to right, Gorman scored.2–3
- 6Yelich grounded into fielder's choice to second, Chourio scored.1–3
- 6Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Frelick scored, Chourio to third.1–2
- 5Arenado doubled to left, Burleson scored.1–1
- 4Contreras doubled to left, Frelick scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML STL +135 / MIL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- STL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.014th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 21–1414th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–33 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31 | 27–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–18 MIL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 30.