Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas homered to left (380 feet).1–2
- 5Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.0–2
- 2Duran doubled to right, A. García scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML CHW +140 / TEX -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −21 | CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +83 Elo | TEX 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–30 | Road vs home | 22–1310th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 29th of 301415 | Elo rating | 150020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–29 | 35–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 42–28 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 23–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–15 TEX in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 18.