Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee walked, Castro scored, Correa to second, Larnach to third.12–5
- 8Jeffers homered to center (448 feet), Correa scored.11–5
- 7Friedl singled to center, McLain scored.9–5
- 4Correa singled to center, Larnach scored.9–4
- 4Larnach doubled to right, Castro scored.8–4
- 3Lux homered to right (351 feet), Friedl scored.7–4
- 3Jeffers doubled to left, Correa scored and France scored.7–2
- 3France doubled to left, Castro scored, Correa to third.5–2
- 2Buxton homered to left center (396 feet).4–2
- 2Clemens homered to right (403 feet), Jeffers scored.3–2
- 1Steer doubled to left, Stephenson scored.1–2
- 1Stephenson singled to left, Friedl scored.1–1
- 1Buxton homered to left (432 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML MIN -105 / CIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +32 Elo | CIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 3016–25 | Road vs home | 20–1618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–31 | 41–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–18 | 14–22 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–5 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.