Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith singled to center, Walker scored, Meyers to second.2–3
- 5Lee homered to left center (345 feet), Correa scored.2–2
- 3Diaz homered to right (339 feet), Peña scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 42.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +16 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +54 Elo | HOU 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 25–135th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–30 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–18 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 31–38 | 28–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–10 HOU in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.