Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9France homered to left center (389 feet).3–10
- 8Peña singled to center, Dubón scored, Rodgers to third.2–10
- 6Lewis homered to center (425 feet).2–9
- 4Altuve homered to left center (342 feet).1–9
- 4Castro homered to left (367 feet).1–8
- 3Dubón hit sacrifice fly to right, Melton scored.0–8
- 3Melton tripled to center, Meyers scored and Smith scored.0–7
- 2Altuve doubled to center, Peña scored and Rodgers scored.0–5
- 1Melton singled to right, Walker scored, Smith to third.0–3
- 1Smith singled to center, Diaz scored and Peña scored, Walker to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −16 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +26 Elo | HOU 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 24–136th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15289th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–29 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–18 | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–38 | 27–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–9 HOU in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.