Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Harrison BaderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David FestaPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Friedl doubled to center, McLain scored and Fraley scored.5–6
- 6Bader homered to right center (350 feet), Lee scored and Larnach scored.5–4
- 6Larnach singled to right, France scored, Lee to third.2–4
- 4Fraley singled to right, Benson scored and Steer scored.1–4
- 4Benson doubled to left, Stephenson scored and De La Cruz scored.1–2
- 3Buxton homered to center (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML MIN +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +39 Elo | CIN 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 18–1619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 20th of 301501 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–30 | 40–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–18 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–40 | 31–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.