Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Larnach grounded out to shortstop, Castro scored, Lee to second.2–4
- 3Benson singled to right, Steer scored.1–4
- 2McLain singled to right, Trevino scored, Fraley to second.1–3
- 1Steer homered to right center (371 feet), Friedl scored.1–2
- 1Buxton homered to left center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML MIN +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN -0.2 – 0.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 0
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −16 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +19 Elo | CIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–24 | Road vs home | 19–1618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 20th of 301500 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–30 | 40–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–18 | 14–22 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–40 | 32–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.