Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting1-4
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trevino doubled to right, Espinal scored on throwing error by right fielder Walker.1–6
- 7Nootbaar singled to center, Gorman scored, Saggese to second.0–6
- 7Donovan scored and Winn scored on error, Saggese safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Lux, Gorman safe at third on error.0–5
- 7Gorman walked, Scott II scored, Winn to second, Donovan to third.0–3
- 7Winn singled to center, Pagés scored, Donovan to second, Scott II to third.0–2
- 3Burleson hit sacrifice fly to center, Donovan scored, Winn to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML CIN +120 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- STL: Elo 53.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- CIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +21 Elo | STL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 22–1411th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–34 | 41–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41 | 41–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 15–15 STL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 30.