St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mike VasilPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Nootbaar homered to right center (378 feet).8–6
- 10Arenado singled to right, Walker scored, Arenado out stretching at second.7–6
- 7Benintendi homered to right center (401 feet), Slater scored, Tauchman scored and Meidroth scored.6–6
- 7Tauchman singled to right, Sosa scored, Slater to second.6–2
- 4Contreras doubled to right, Gorman scored and Pagés scored, Scott II to third.6–1
- 3Arenado homered to left center (385 feet).4–1
- 3Burleson homered to left (363 feet), Scott II scored and Contreras scored.3–1
- 2Noda homered to left center (397 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML STL -170 / CHW +130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- STL: Elo 63.2%, market 59.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −8 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Vasil: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +94 Elo | STL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 16–2026th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 141029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–34 | 44–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders | 40–34 | 36–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–3 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.