New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Allan WinansPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer scored on error, Trevino safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Volpe.1–6
- 8De La Cruz homered to right (362 feet).1–5
- 5De La Cruz singled to right, Fraley scored, McLain to second, Friedl to third.1–4
- 4Lux homered to right (362 feet).1–3
- 4Steer hit sacrifice fly to left, De La Cruz scored.1–2
- 4De La Cruz tripled to center, McLain scored.1–1
- 1Judge homered to left (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -125 / CIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −38 | −12 | NYY: Allan Winans: team allows 1.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 20–1718th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301552 | Elo rating | 150318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–40 | 43–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–37 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 28–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–46 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–3 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.