Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8LeMahieu grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Chisholm Jr. scored on error by catcher Sánchez.2–4
- 8Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored and Rice scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.2–3
- 2LeMahieu singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored on error, LeMahieu safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Cowser.2–1
- 1Cowser doubled to left, Henderson scored, O'Hearn to third.2–0
- 1O'Hearn singled to right, Urías scored, Henderson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML BAL +165 / NYY -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -177
- BAL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 5.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −16 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +57 Elo | NYY 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 23–1613th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301489 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–43 | 36–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42 | 31–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 18–13 NYY in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 31.