Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adell grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Trout scored, Rengifo safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Volpe, Ward to third.3–2
- 5Adell homered to center (436 feet).2–2
- 4Bellinger homered to right (358 feet).1–2
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right (407 feet).1–1
- 1Schanuel homered to right (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 69%
- ML LAA +210 / NYY -255
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 65.6%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -223
- LAA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 5.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +112 Elo | NYY 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 67.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 21–1414th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 26th of 301452 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–37 | 34–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 28–35 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 31–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–8 NYY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.