New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching8.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Narváez singled to center, Hamilton scored, Devers to third.1–2
- 9Judge homered to left center (443 feet).1–1
- 2Rafaela singled to center, Story scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML NYY +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- NYY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.5 – 4.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +11 | NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 19–1720th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 1st of 301559 | Elo rating | 150120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–34 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–31 | 16–25 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–17 BOS in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 29.