Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Story singled to center, Mayer scored and Narváez scored, Toro to second.10–7
- 8LeMahieu singled to center, Rice scored and Bellinger scored, LeMahieu to second.8–7
- 4Reyes grounded out to shortstop, LeMahieu scored.8–5
- 4Wells doubled to center, Bellinger scored, LeMahieu to third.8–4
- 4González homered to left (384 feet), Refsnyder scored.8–3
- 3Campbell singled to right, Story scored.6–3
- 3Story doubled to left, Narváez scored, Toro scored and González scored.5–3
- 3Toro singled to center, Refsnyder scored, González to second, Narváez to third.2–3
- 2Wells homered to right (343 feet), Bellinger scored and LeMahieu scored.1–3
- 2Campbell singled to right, González scored, Rafaela to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML BOS -105 / NYY -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +4 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +71 Elo | NYY 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 21–105th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 15591st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–33 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–23 | 26–28 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 31–34 | 27–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 15–12 NYY in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 27.