Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rafaela homered to left (384 feet).7–6
- 6Adell homered to left center (394 feet).7–5
- 5González doubled to right, Narváez scored and Refsnyder scored.6–5
- 5Narváez doubled to left, Devers scored, Refsnyder to third.6–3
- 5Refsnyder singled to left, Duran scored, Devers to second.6–2
- 3Devers doubled to center, Duran scored.6–1
- 1Adell homered to left center (404 feet).6–0
- 1Trout homered to center (454 feet), Ward scored and Soler scored.5–0
- 1Schanuel scored, Soler safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Toro, Ward to second.2–0
- 1Neto homered to left center (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML LAA +120 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +61 Elo | BOS 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.67th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.422nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 16–1418th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 27th of 301446 | Elo rating | 149721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–32 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 23–21 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–27 | 28–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–7 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.