Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GuerreroPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rafaela homered to right (308 feet), Toro scored.9–11
- 8Devers singled to center, Story scored, Duran to third.9–9
- 8Newman singled to center, Taylor scored.9–8
- 7Toro hit sacrifice fly to center, Narváez scored.8–8
- 5O'Hoppe singled to left, Lugo scored.8–7
- 4Narváez singled to right, Campbell scored, Duran to third.7–7
- 4Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, Hamilton scored.7–6
- 2Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Schanuel scored.7–5
- 2Schanuel doubled to center, Neto scored.6–5
- 2Neto tripled to left, Newman scored.5–5
- 1Hamilton doubled to left, Narváez scored and Mayer scored, Toro to third.4–5
- 1Toro singled to left, Abreu scored, Mayer to second, Narváez to third.4–3
- 1Mayer walked, Devers scored, Narváez to second, Abreu to third.4–2
- 1Abreu singled to center, Duran scored, Devers to second.4–1
- 1Ward homered to left center (383 feet), Schanuel scored and Trout scored.4–0
- 1Schanuel doubled to center, Neto scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML LAA +120 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.0 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +51 Elo | BOS 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 26th of 301448 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–32 | 31–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 25–21 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 32–28 | 29–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–7 BOS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.