Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ward grounded into double play, third to second to first, Neto scored, Trout out at second, Schanuel to third.4–3
- 6Rafaela homered to left (426 feet), Story scored.3–3
- 3Duran doubled to center, Wong scored, Campbell to third.3–1
- 3Schanuel singled to left, Taylor scored and Neto scored.3–0
- 3Neto singled to center, Adell scored, Taylor to second. Neto to second, Taylor safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Rafaela.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML LAA +125 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +59 Elo | BOS 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 16–1519th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301447 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–32 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 14–22 |
| Underdog | 24–21 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27 | 29–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–7 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.