Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Devers homered to right center (419 feet), Duran scored.6–9
- 6Goldschmidt homered to right (346 feet).4–9
- 6González singled to left, Devers scored and Narváez scored, González to second, Toro to third.4–8
- 6Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.2–8
- 5Judge singled to left, Wells scored on error, Judge to second, LeMahieu to second, LeMahieu safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Duran.1–8
- 5Mayer homered to right center (410 feet).1–7
- 2Volpe hit by pitch, Goldschmidt scored, Domínguez to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.0–7
- 2Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Judge scored, Goldschmidt to third.0–6
- 1Volpe homered to right center (369 feet), Domínguez scored.0–5
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to center (417 feet), Grisham scored and Judge scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML BOS +160 / NYY -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -170
- BOS +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −26 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 1.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +45 Elo | NYY 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.79th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 20–106th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–32 | 30–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–23 | 25–28 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 26–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 15–11 NYY in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 26.