New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6India homered to center (415 feet).10–2
- 6Bellinger singled to center, Grisham scored, Judge to third.10–1
- 6Judge singled to right, Goldschmidt scored, Grisham to third.9–1
- 6Grisham singled to right, Wells scored, Goldschmidt to second.8–1
- 6Wells doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored and LeMahieu scored.7–1
- 4Wells homered to right (381 feet), Domínguez scored and LeMahieu scored.5–1
- 2Caglianone grounded out to second, Pasquantino scored, Canha to second.2–1
- 1Judge homered to left (469 feet), Grisham scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML NYY -200 / KC +165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -177
- KC +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 3.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +43 Elo | NYY 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 19–1314th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301553 | Elo rating | 149921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–33 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–30 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35 | 27–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 15–5 KC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.
- Apr 16KC 3 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 58%Hit
- Apr 15KC 2 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 69%Hit
- Apr 14KC 1 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 57%Hit
- Oct 10NYY 3 @ KC 1PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Hit
- Oct 9NYY 3 @ KC 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 7KC 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 5KC 5 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 64%Hit
- Sep 11KC 3 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 57%Hit