Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge homered to right center (398 feet), Wells scored.11–7
- 9Toro doubled to left, Mayer scored.11–5
- 9Devers homered to right (393 feet).10–5
- 8Story homered to right center (353 feet).9–5
- 8Toro homered to right (391 feet).8–5
- 6Grisham walked, Bellinger scored, Volpe to second, Goldschmidt to third.7–5
- 6Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored.7–4
- 6Duran singled to center, Story scored and Toro scored, Campbell to second.7–3
- 6Narváez homered to left (372 feet), Devers scored and Refsnyder scored.5–3
- 5LeMahieu homered to right (358 feet).2–3
- 5Campbell homered to right (349 feet), Rafaela scored.2–2
- 1Judge homered to right center (436 feet), Rice scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 68%
- ML BOS +200 / NYY -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -212
- BOS +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +82 Elo | NYY 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 21–118th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–33 | 31–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–23 | 26–29 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34 | 28–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 16–12 NYY in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 28.