Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Marcelo MayerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Toro homered to center (408 feet).3–4
- 5Díaz homered to right (386 feet), B. Lowe scored.3–3
- 4Mayer homered to right (410 feet).1–3
- 2Mayer homered to right (418 feet).1–2
- 2J. Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mangum scored, Misner out at second, Thaiss to third.1–1
- 1Duran homered to right center (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML TB +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 18–1720th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 150020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–34 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 26–41 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 20–11 BOS in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 31.