Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hernández singled to center, Lopez scored.11–10
- 7B. Lowe homered to center (409 feet).10–10
- 6Walls homered to right center (397 feet), Jansen scored.10–9
- 6Morel homered to left (368 feet).10–7
- 5Myers doubled to center, Hicks scored.10–6
- 5Hicks doubled to left, J. Sánchez scored and Lopez scored.9–6
- 5J. Sánchez doubled to left, Edwards scored and Fortes scored.7–6
- 5Edwards singled to right, Norby scored, Fortes to third.5–6
- 4Jansen homered to left (375 feet), Morel scored.4–6
- 3J. Sánchez homered to right (425 feet), Fortes scored and Edwards scored.4–4
- 3Edwards doubled to left, Norby scored, Fortes to third.1–4
- 2Walls doubled to left, Jansen scored.0–4
- 2Morel homered to left (438 feet), Caminero scored and Caballero scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML MIA +135 / TB -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 61.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −7 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +77 Elo | TB 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 22–1918th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 27th of 301444 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–32 | 32–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 33–28 | 24–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–8 TB in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.