Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lopez homered to left center (424 feet), Sanoja scored.3–4
- 7Thaiss singled to center, Aranda scored, Thaiss to second, Mangum to third.1–4
- 4Ramírez homered to center (403 feet).1–3
- 3Mangum grounded out to shortstop, Caminero scored.0–3
- 3Aranda grounded out to second, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.0–2
- 1Aranda singled to right, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML MIA +120 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- TB: Elo 62.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +6 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +87 Elo | TB 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 27th of 301445 | Elo rating | 151812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–32 | 32–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27 | 24–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–7 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.