Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting3-3
- Valente BellozoPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Caballero scored.2–3
- 5Díaz homered to right (354 feet), Walls scored.2–2
- 5J. Sánchez singled to center, Hernández scored, J. Sánchez to second.2–0
- 1Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TB 67%
- ML MIA +195 / TB -235
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- TB: Elo 63.0%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -207
- MIA +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +11 | MIA: Anthony Veneziano (no track record yet) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +92 Elo | TB 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 22–2018th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 27th of 301446 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–32 | 32–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 34–28 | 25–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–8 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.