Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Story homered to left (398 feet).1–3
- 5Díaz reached on infield single to second, Caballero scored, Mangum to third.1–2
- 1Anthony doubled to left, Devers scored and Narváez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML TB -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −15 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 17–1720th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 10th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–33 | 34–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 15–24 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 26–40 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 20–10 BOS in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 30.