Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jake MangumBatting4-6, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Mangum reached on infield single to first, J. Lowe scored, Caminero to second, Aranda to third.10–8
- 11Caminero walked, Jansen scored, Aranda to second, J. Lowe to third.9–8
- 10Toro safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Aranda, Rafaela scored, Devers safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Aranda.8–8
- 10Walls hit sacrifice fly to center, Caminero scored.8–7
- 9Campbell reached on infield single to second, Toro scored.7–7
- 9Anthony grounded out to shortstop, Devers scored, Toro to third.7–6
- 9Aranda hit sacrifice fly to center, Caballero scored, Díaz to second.7–5
- 7Story singled to left, Duran scored.6–5
- 7Toro grounded out to second, Wong scored, Duran to third.6–4
- 7Aranda singled to center, Díaz scored, Aranda to second.6–3
- 7J. Lowe scored on Bernardino wild pitch, Díaz to second.5–3
- 7J. Lowe scored on Bernardino wild pitch, Díaz to second on wild pitch by Bernardino.5–3
- 7J. Lowe doubled to center, Walls scored.4–3
- 6González doubled to right, Devers scored and Toro scored, Campbell to third.3–3
- 5Wong grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Mayer scored, Rafaela out at second.3–1
- 5Díaz singled to right, B. Lowe scored on fielding error by right fielder Anthony, Díaz to third.3–0
- 5B. Lowe singled to left, Jansen scored.2–0
- 4Mangum reached on infield single to shortstop, Díaz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML TB -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +3 Elo | TB 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 17–1620th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 150020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–33 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 15–23 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–40 | 33–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 19–10 BOS in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 29.