New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- J.C. EscarraBatting2-4
- Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4
- Seth LugoPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goldschmidt reached on infield single to first, Reyes scored on throwing error by pitcher Erceg, Rice safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -125 / KC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | −5 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 1.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 19–1515th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301558 | Elo rating | 149422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–33 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–30 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 29–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 17–5 KC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 22.
- Jun 11NYY 6 @ KC 3Picked NYY 54%Hit
- Jun 10NYY 10 @ KC 2Picked NYY 64%Hit
- Apr 16KC 3 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 58%Hit
- Apr 15KC 2 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 69%Hit
- Apr 14KC 1 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 57%Hit
- Oct 10NYY 3 @ KC 1PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Hit
- Oct 9NYY 3 @ KC 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 7KC 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss