New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Devers homered to left center (370 feet).0–2
- 1Story singled to left, González scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML NYY -185 / BOS +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- BOS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 3.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −11 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +59 Elo | NYY 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 21–1717th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301556 | Elo rating | 150318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–35 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–38 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–19 BOS in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 31.